Recession on the horizon? Based on our own research and research by Bain & Company, Harvard Business Review, Deloitte, Gartner and McKinsey, we formulate 7 actions to accelerate your profitability during and straight after a recession. Figure 1 shows how big the difference is between winners and losers. This does not only apply to EBIT, after a recession, winning companies are also able to make significant strides in market share.

Axisto - Winning companies accelerate the growth of their profitability during and straight after a recession
Figure 1. “Winning companies accelerated profitability during and after the recession, while losers stalled” (Source: Bain & Company).

THE 7 MOST IMPORTANT ACTIONS TO BE AMONGST THE WINNERS

The key to success is preparation. Although, preparation is actually a wrong choice of words. Winners are winners, because they structurally sail close to the wind and have a clear vision. They are proactive, fast and decisive. They are financially prudent to absorb setbacks and seize opportunities as they arise. The seven actions below clearly indicate what that means in concrete terms.

1. CLEAR VISION AND ORGANISATIONAL ALIGNMENT

What will your business look like in three to five years? And in one year? What are the ‘vital few’ strategic initiatives and what is the path from strategy to concrete actions? Not only your leadership team needs to be committed and aligned, this applies to your entire organisation. Strategy Deployment is a powerful tool to maintain alignment and focus, monitor progress against plan and make rapid and appropriate adjustments in case of changing conditions.

2. UNDERSTAND YOUR STRATEGIC AND FINANCIAL POSITION

Mapping out your plans depends on your strategic and financial position (see figure 2).

Axisto - Mapping out your plans requires an assessment of your company’s strategic and financial position
Figure 2. Mapping out your plans requires an assessment of your company’s strategic and financial position (Source: Bain & Company).

3. FREE UP FINANCIAL RESOURCES

The focus is on aligning your spending with your vision and strategic initiatives; not blunt cost cutting. Zero-based Alignment is a good way to select and make lean those activities that are fully aligned. Non-aligned activities are stopped. The financial resources you free up can strengthen your balance sheet and/or support your investment agenda.

Currently we face high inflation. Supply chain problems and capacity bottlenecks are responsible for some of it, but their effect will dampen. Another cause is the sharp rise in energy costs as a result of the conflict in Ukraine and the resulting economic sanctions. In time, part of the costs will bounce back, but no longer to the old level. Costs will remain structurally higher due to urgency of the climate-change-driven energy transition. Furthermore, too much money is in circulation and its effect on inflation will also last longer.

The current high inflation can turn margins negative very quickly. Speed and flexibility are called for and selling prices have to go up. Raising prices in one go is difficult. It is better to do this in regular small steps. Possibilities depend on the strength of your brand and the market your company operates in. Make sure you retain the right customers in the process

4. RETAIN YOUR CUSTOMERS

Retaining customers is much cheaper than acquiring new ones. The margin impact is significant. Explore ways to help your customers through the economic downturn and particularly in the early upturn when the opportunities start to arise. Winners have already created the “currency” to invest. Just make sure you target the right customers.

5. PLAN FOR VARIOUS SCENARIOS

No one knows when and how a downturn will fully unfold and when the economy will start growing again. The winners have developed different scenarios, and they know how they should act in each scenario. This allows them to act quickly and decisively.

6. ACT QUICKLY AND DECISIVELY

Winning companies act quickly and decisively, in the downturn and particularly in the early upswing when the opportunities begin to emerge. They have already unlocked the financial resources to invest.

7. EMBRACE TECHNOLOGY

Not all companies have been equally aggressive in adopting new technologies. There are many opportunities here for improving efficiency or generating more value and thereby gaining a competitive advantage.

To emphasise the importance of technology even more.
Figure 3 shows the development of the total shareholder return before and after the recession of 2009/2010. It is clear to see how winners break away from the rest.

Figure 3. Companies with top-quartile revenue growth and cost control are rewarded by investors. Source: https://hbr.org/2019/05/how-to-survive-a-recession-and-thrive-afterward
Figure 3. Companies with top-quartile revenue growth and cost control are rewarded by investors. Source: https://hbr.org/2019/05/how-to-survive-a-recession-and-thrive-afterward

Harvard Business Review found that 70% of companies failed to regain their pre-recession growth rate in the 3 years following the recession. Only 5% of companies manage to develop a growth rate that is consistently above that of their competitors (quarter-over-quarter simultaneous growth of sales and profit margin).

Digital leaders are 3x more likely to achieve revenue and margin growth that exceeds industry!

Maintenance maximises its value for the company by combining high asset effectiveness with low costs. We distinguish three main domains: (1) Reliability Management, (2) Reliability Improvement, and (3) Smart Maintenance.

1. Reliability Management

The domain of Reliability Management focuses on achieving the maximum reliability and availability of assets. In this domain, Maintenance and Production work hand in hand. They utilise the assets as intended and ensure that the necessary basic conditions are maintained. The quality of the interaction between Operators, Maintenance Technicians, and Maintenance Engineers determines the outcome.

Reliability Management is a combination of Corrective and Preventive/Condition-based Maintenance, where the behaviour of the assets, root causes of (potential) failures, performed maintenance work, and asset usage are carefully documented. There is a strong drive to continuously improve costs and efficiency within set frameworks. The insights provided by Reliability Management form the basis for Reliability Improvement

2. Reliability Improvement

Reliability Engineers and Engineers analyse the behaviour and usage of assets and enhance set frameworks by reducing the required maintenance of assets through improved maintenance routines, component redesign, and the introduction of new components. They prepare the organisation and assets for changing requirements, such as emissions and energy usage, as well as evolving market conditions, such as volume, product types, and the level of required flexibility.

3. Smart Maintenance

By utilising sensors and digital technologies, high-quality data becomes available, enabling the prediction of asset failure risks and the execution of maintenance precisely at the right time. Condition-based Maintenance transitions into Predictive Maintenance, which is carried out based on a forecast derived from the analysis and evaluation of critical parameters of asset degradation.

Other practical applications of digital tools within Maintenance include smart glasses, which allow technicians in the field to see where they need to perform which maintenance or to be remotely supported by specialists. Handheld devices, such as phones and tablets, provide work instructions and real-time information about spare parts, along with the ability to document performed work and observations immediately. RFID codes are used to identify assets with direct access to work orders and fault history. An integrated CMMS (computerised maintenance management system) or add-ons ensure efficient work order management.

Attaining world-class supply chain management and collaboration means developing and managing supply chains and partnerships so that your company is flexible and resilient, with response times and delivery performance that will beat the competition.
Future supply chains need to cope with the long-term trends of mass customisation, ever shorter life cycles and the more recent volatile conditions that are here to stay. In these market conditions, many companies will benefit from a “smart” supply chain, which combines the drive to eliminate waste (i.e. anything that doesn’t add value) with agility and responsiveness (i.e. the ability to handle unpredictability with speed and flexibility).

A smart supply chain enables fast, flexible supply of tailor-made products at competitive cost levels. It excels in having few product and process quality issues, reduced operational costs, increased flexibility, and high internal process speeds. It integrates customers and business partners to create value in both the primary and support processes.

Building a smart supply chain requires a holistic approach that integrates product and process design, organisation design, and digital solutions:

  • an unambiguous supply chain strategy
  • product configuration for late postponement
  • processes that are aligned with strategy and designed for minimal order cycle times
  • a flat organisation with multidisciplinary teams and no silos
  • integration with partners throughout the supply chain
  • an aligned performance management system with real-time information from the end-to-end process
  • supply chain visibility with the ability for stakeholders throughout the supply chain to access real-time data related to the order process, planning, inventory, delivery and potential supply chain disruptions

Disciplined cash and working capital management drives good operational and financial performance. However, performance in order to cash, inventory management and procure to pay  slumped over the 5 years prior to the COVID outbreak. A closer analysis reveals that inventory optimisation poses companies the biggest challenge – both in volatile and non-volatile markets. More Cash – Lower Inventory – Better Service, good inventory management is the key.

DELIVER DOUBLE DIGIT INVENTORY REDUCTIONS AND MAINTAIN OR IMPROVE SERVICE LEVELS

Decades of experience have taught us that going straight for the inventories themselves is both the quickest and the surest way of delivering a high-performing supply chain. Inventory sits right at the heart of your supply chain and is both a symptom and cause of your supply chain performance. Getting inventory right keeps your customers happy, increases flow and reduces cost and waste and frees up cash.

At Axisto, we combine the practical business focus of management consulting with the high-speed analytical capability of advanced information technology. We rapidly distil practical insights from data in Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) systems. Our people concentrate on the human challenges of implementing and sustaining resilient and lean supply chains.

Our unique approach to supply chain puts inventory optimisation front and centre. This allows us to help deliver double digit reductions in inventory while maintaining or improving service levels – at speed in a low risk manner compared to traditional approaches.

OUR INVENTORY MANAGEMENT PROPOSITIONS

Axisto provides three inventory management propositions: inventory optimisation programmes, inventory analytics and inventory maturity assessments.

Our starting point with most clients is a quick scan. On the basis of just 3 standard reports from your ERP system, we quantify improvement potential item by item as well as overall. The output is both an immediate high-level quantification of improvement potential and the basis of a road map to deliver sustainable improvements quickly.

INVENTORY OPTIMISATION PROGRAMMES

We provide expert analytics and effective change management backed up by a clearly measurable business case. Improvements to inventory positions of 20% or more, sometimes much more, are usually achievable within the first year, at a high return on investment.

 INVENTORY ANALYTICS

Do you find it difficult to really understand what your inventory data is telling you, or what you should do about it? Do you have optimisation tools that are difficult to use or which give results you know to be wrong, but you’re not sure why? With the proprietary technology that we use, we provide clients with rapid actionable insights into their inventory data.

In addition, we help clients with a range of targeted analytical exercises, ranging from strategic inventory positioning (where in your supply chain should you hold inventory?) through to setting inventory policies for items that are hard to optimise, such as spare parts, or make to order products.

INVENTORY MATURITY ASSESSMENTS

Inventory is influenced by almost every aspect of your business. Therefore, it can be hard to know at an enterprise level where the biggest opportunities for further improvement are, or how you compare to your competitors.

Axisto can take the temperature of your inventory management. We combine a granular, bottom-up quantitative assessment of your potential for improvement with a qualitative overview of your people, processes and systems, including relevant benchmarks, to give you actionable insights into where to find the next step change in your performance journey.

A CASE

CHALLENGE

A medium-sized industrial manufacturing firm with a strong market position and profitability had little historical focus on inventory. The consequence was that inventory was increasing gradually. It was time to act.

RESULTS

Inventory was reduced by more than 50% from the initial baseline over a period of 3 years, while service levels were maintained or improved. Improvements in the underlying data led to a better understanding of how and why to act – inventory management capability was significantly developed within the client’s teams.

SOME QUOTES

“We finally have full transparency of what we have, so we can make fact-based decisions on a weekly basis.” – Automotive manufacturer

Since starting a programme, we have reduced our inventories by over 50%.” –  Industrial manufacturer

The results are exceptional and have made a major difference to our cash flow.” – Global manufacturing company

The inventory programme brought a wide range of process issues into sharp focus, with an impact much broader than just inventory.” – Market-leading manufacturer

CHALLENGE

The company had an history of growth and earning good margins. However, for quite some time growth slowed down, margins were declining, some key customers started to leave and the number of new product introductions had declined.

The Management Team wanted to turn the business around, had sharpened the vision and crafted a new strategy. Axisto was asked to support deployment of the strategy

APPROACH

Together with the Management Team it was decided to use Hoshin Policy Deployment to structure the deployment of the strategy. The process kicked off with a two-day workshop with the company’s Top30.

After sharing and discussing the vision and strategy, the ‘how to deliver it’ was explored in break-out sessions. The two days generated not only a clear sense of direction and alignment, but also a more connected and energised Top30 community.

In a series of follow-on worksessions involving more people objectives and targets were sense-checked. And the deployment was completed down to concrete break-through projects.

We partner with Human Resources, Finance and IT to improve quality, speed and cost so that your support functions can provide an advantage over the competition.
We help you quickly identify the sources of value, develop a plan of achievable initiatives, turn that plan into action, and ensure the results are sustainable.
We bring a full range of capabilities to help you achieve your goal. Our advanced analytics and automation expertise will help your support functions get more value from technology.

FINANCE

We help you to develop an aligned and integrated finance function that delivers superior service and tight controls at a lower cost – allowing your finance team to spend more time on higher-value, forward-looking activities and less on accounting and transactional tasks.
We partner with you to quickly identify opportunities to increase service, strengthen controls and drive down costs through Intelligent Automation. To sustain your results over the long term, we develop the capability of your people. With our Operational Performance Builder® method, we foster a deep ownership culture and bring about the necessary behavioural changes.

HR

Most businesses face major change or even outright disruption. At the same time, 70% of change initiatives fail to deliver the intended results. We see HR as the critical function, first, to support the leadership team and managers in the organisation in delivering a successful change programme for a step change in performance and, second, to retain and develop employees in line with developing business needs.
To do so, HR must radically change the way it operates: spend less time on the administrative elements of recruiting, developing and retaining people, and more value-adding time with leaders and managers throughout the company for improved business outcomes and better employee experience.
We partner with you to quickly identify opportunities to increase service and quality and reduce costs through Intelligent Automation. To sustain your results over the long-term, we develop the capability of your people. With our Operational Performance Builder® method, we foster a deep ownership culture and bring about the necessary behaviour changes.

IT

Industry 4.0 means the growing together of the digital and manufacturing industries. All physical assets are digitised and integrated into digital ecosystems with partners in the value chain. This means that IT is pulled into the centre of business operations. We call this “Agile Business Integrated IT”.

IT INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT

Nowadays, there are many different types of IT infrastructures: several variants of the cloud, appliances (implementation of algorithms in hardware), on-premise (own data centre), and central network infrastructures. The administration, cost and sourcing of these different types of IT infrastructure must be continuously optimised.

IT CONTRACT MANAGEMENT

Both the development and provision of digital services require effective contractual agreements with providers, partners and customers, with the responsibilities and the service quality, if necessary, clearly regulated by service levels. Appropriate limitations of liability should be included. Contract management and flexible service adjustments are particularly relevant in the course of iterative service development. The question of “who is liable and how” must be answered for the content or service components that are constantly being developed.

SEAMLESS IT INTEGRATION

Middleware technologies (i.e. the services of various components that integrate with one another according to certain rules and processes) and the service-oriented, architecture modularisation that makes it more adaptable are essential. The management of these technologies and the establishment of corresponding digital architectures are becoming the core task of IT as a business enabler.

DEVOPS

The term DevOps was formed by combining “development” and “operations”. DevOps isn’t a process or a technology or a standard. DevOps represents a change in IT culture, focusing on rapid IT service delivery through the adoption of agile, lean practices in the context of a system-oriented approach. DevOps emphasises people (and culture) and seeks to improve collaboration between operations and development teams. DevOps implementations utilise technology — especially automation tools that can leverage an increasingly programmable and dynamic infrastructure from a life cycle perspective. Importantly, the meaning of DevOps has broadened to be an umbrella term for the processes, culture and mindset used to shorten the software development life cycle, using fast feedback loops to deliver features, fixes and updates more frequently.

CHALLENGE

A supplier of consumables to the aluminium-smelting industry had been struggling with high-cost pressures and its ability to make product at a commercially viable price. It had taken drastic action by slashing costs across the organisation and cutting deep in the CAPEX budget.

Unfortunately, this left the company unable to respond effectively to a significant increase in demand. Operational problems multiplied, delivery performance fell and clients became nervous.

APPROACH

The key to improving production reliability was restoring the equipment reliability. We started with two parallel actions. One action focussed on reassessing the critical equipment and restoring it to a sufficient ‘base condition’.

The second action focussed on implementing an effective ‘short interval control’. This involved fostering a productive cooperation between production and maintenance, developing more effective behaviours in planning & scheduling and work execution, installing a fitting meeting & reporting structure and ensuring an effective break down notification and elimination process.

From the basis that was created by these two parallel actions, we to develop the level of professionalism that was required: In behaviours, methods & tools, communication, quality of the maintenance master plan and craftsmanship.

Digital transformation programmes, a new strategy, performance improvement programmes are all notoriously difficult to implement successfully. The vast majority change initiatives struggle to achieve and maintain the planned programme goals. In fact, only 30% are successful. Timely and complete delivery of a critical initiative is therefore the true determinant of competitive advantage for any company.

 The vast majority of change initiatives stumble over the very thing they are trying to transform: the attitudes and behaviours of people at all levels of the organisation. Our Change Insider® (CI) measures people’s attitudes and behaviours towards the initiative and how they experience it. Based on these insights, the CI facilitates concrete strategic and tactical actions you need to take to make sure your change initiative is delivered successfully: on time, in full and in a sustainable manner.

HOW THE CHANGE INSIDER® ENSURES SUCCESS

The CI measures people’s perception of an initiative and how they experience it. This is done by asking a number of custom-designed questions as part of a short online survey that takes about 6 minutes to complete. The questions are created by collaborating with people from a cross-section of your organisation and cover the context, objectives, content and approach of your specific initiative. Therefore, the questions are tailored to your organisation and your change initiative. These are the crucial questions that live in your organisation about this specific initiative.

Everyone within the scope of the initiative answers these crucial questions. They do this in a confidential manner and can also add further comments. The survey results are then presented in practical, actionable reports for every relevant cross-section of your organisation.

The reports allow you to compare business units, departments, teams and levels in the organisation. You can see how your people are experiencing the initiative and how the chosen approach influences both the adoption of the change and the actual change itself. The feedback also highlights any differences between different levels or parts of the organisation. Therefore, you can carry out differentiated interventions and keep the entire initiative on track. The survey is repeated at fixed intervals. This way, the CI tracks the effect of interventions on the adoption of change, the actual change itself and the perception of the initiative over time. This provides information about what needs to be done when and where in the organisation to achieve the desired progress and sustainability of the change (see Figure 1).

Axisto Change Insider - perception of the change initiative
Figure 1. An example from an CI report that demonstrates how people are experiencing the initiative by showing the development of answers to critical questions over two survey cycles.

The goal of the Change Insider® is very different to employee engagement surveys. The CI focuses on bringing about sustainable change with a specific initiative. Employee engagement surveys measure how dedicated employees are to their workplace or their employer.

THE DYNAMICS OF CHANGE

People’s ability to change their attitudes and behaviours is determined mainly by their perceptions and intentions. So we must first change perceptions and intentions before any change in attitudes and behaviours occurs. But how do we do this? The best way to influence people’s perceptions and intentions is to provide information and encourage people to gain new experiences.

Perceptions and intentions record people’s motivations and are indicators of how hard people are willing to try or how much effort they intend to put in to display the required behaviour. During a change process, people are confronted with two forces: first, a change tension (the perceived need and urgency of the initiative) and, second, the power to change (the willingness to support and adopt the change and the ability to contribute). Both forces are needed in a programme to bring about change.

The way people experience these forces is the most important indicator of people’s perceptions and intentions towards an initiative. The rating for these two indicators gives the best prediction about a person’s intention to adopt the attitude and behaviour that is required. In different parts and levels of the organisation, the two forces are likely to develop differently, as shown in Figure 2. This drives the need for specific interventions for different parts of the organisation.

Axisto Change Insider - adoption of change - change tension and power to change
Figure 2. An example from an CI report showing the survey results of three teams (A, B, M) and the development of the effects of interventions over two survey cycles. The teams and their development can easily be compared.

The Change Insider® provides fact-based guidance for precisely these differentiated interventions to enable the timely and complete delivery of your mission-critical initiative.

CHALLENGE

The owner had previously managed the company with a high level of entrepreneurship and energy, but with little attention to processes and organisational issues. On the surface the company appeared successful, but it lacked a solid foundation.

Some of the issues: decreasing on-time delivery (OTD), multiple product quality issues, low customer satisfaction and a declining profit margin.

APPROACH

A new top management team was already addressing the factory layout to optimise flow and enhance housekeeping. Axisto was invited in to improve production control and to develop a more professional middle management team.

We worked closely with the middle managers in Production, Work Preparation and S&OP to better align departments and improve their performance.

A more effective ‘short interval control’ was introduced to drive daily and weekly performance to KPI targets. Management and team leaders focussed more on First Time Right quality, and communication between departments was improved. In addition, some team leaders were assigned to other departments to ensure a better fit.

“Tell me where you spend your money and I will tell you what your strategy is.” There is probably no better sentence to describe the potential difference between an intended strategy and a defacto strategy. Zero-based budgeting (ZBB) is a powerful approach to accelerate growth, create value and make your strategy happen.

WHAT IS ZERO-BASED BUDGETING?

ZBB starts from a blank sheet of paper, not from last year’s budget. On a very granular level, you start by determining what resources various business units require to deliver the strategic goals. You then address individual cost categories across all business units and justify all expenditure. In ZBB the base line is not last year’s budget, but “zero”.

ZBB was introduced in the 1960s and was slow in getting traction. It had a brief spell of popularity and then sank away into obscurity. Now, supported by progressed digitisation, it is on the rise again. But it’s no longer just being used in the consumer packaged goods industry, nor focused only on sales and general administrative expenditure. It has begun to spread across industries and functions. And rightfully so because ZBB is appropriate for any industry and all functions: procurement, supply chain, sales and marketing, service and support, and others.

ZERO-BASED BUDGETTING IS NOT JUST A COST-CONTROL TOOL

Many companies use it as a cost-control tool. However, this is vastly underestimating its real power. When used in a strategic context, ZBB can reconfigure cost structures, free up investment funds and accelerate growth. Successful companies start with a solid “What by How” objective that gives the company direction. The related goals then lead to questions about which investments are necessary and what the total cost structure needs to be to enable these investments. This way, ZBB is tightly integrated with the company’s strategy. It addresses both the cost discipline and the investments and opportunities that drive growth. However, using ZBB as a one-time exercise won’t cut it.

ZERO-BASED BUDGETING TRANSFORMS YOUR BUSINESS

ZBB is not a one-time exercise; it is a way of doing business and part of the DNA of an organisation. Its implementation not only redesigns your processes, policies and systems, but also instils new mindsets and behaviours. ZBB establishes clear cost accountability and disciplines to reduce and permanently eliminate costs that add little or no value. At the same time, it establishes a clear accountability to maximise the added value of the right expenditure. ZBB challenges companies to operate more efficiently and effectively across functions, geographies, divisions and business units to grow the top line and margin. It drives people to make conscious, strategic decisions and to get the right things done.

ZERO-BASED BUDGETING IN GOOD TIMES AND IN BAD TIMES – MAINTAIN STRATEGIC MOMENTUM

During a recession – and more so just afterwards – successful companies grow their EBIT whereas others stall. So why do some companies win while others lose? The common denominator with the winners is that they maintain a strict cost discipline and fund their growth levers in both the high and low phases of the economic cycle. They maintain strategic momentum regardless of market conditions.

We know that the total shareholder return a company achieves is mainly determined by its margin. The companies that generate a significantly higher long-term value grow their EBIT most and implement the required change during economic highs – i.e., pre-emptively. So the earlier a company transforms, the better its future performance.

AND WHAT ABOUT LEAN SIX SIGMA (LSS)?

Lean is often talked about as being an extensive toolbox. This misses the point. Lean is all about mindset and behaviours – it’s about strict cost discipline and fast cash conversion cycle. Lean originated at Toyota when it was rebuilding its business just after World War II. The company was cash strapped – as were its customers.

The whole concept of flow within Toyota’s way of working was, and still is, to ensure a fast cash conversion cycle and eliminate low value-added costs. What’s more, they approached everything from the customer’s point of view – what is the customer willing to pay for? Everything else is waste. Having a fast cash conversion cycle creates the opportunity to grow faster. And that is what they did.

Similarly, Six Sigma is often talked about as being an extensive toolbox. But Six Sigma is also all about mindset and behaviours – one of relentlessly eliminating variation. Six Sigma was developed at Motorola in the late 1980s. The company was crippled by the cost of poor quality, which drained their margins and eroded their revenue. For the company to have a viable future, it had to drive down variation.

SO HOW ARE ZERO-BASED BUDGETING AND LEAN SIX SIGMA RELATED?

Zero-based budgeting is the overarching approach to drive the short- and long-term success of a company. From a business strategy point of view, first the “What by How” objective is set and then the top goals and targets are set. ZBB views the company as a whole from the highest level, informed by its purpose, vision and ambition. It affects every aspect of a company: the operating model including the organisation structure and policies. ZBB thrives on the right mindset and behaviours that are incorporated in the DNA of the organisation.

The mindset and behaviours behind Lean Six Sigma (LSS) fit fully with the mindset and behaviours behind zero-based budgeting. ZBB will steer the selection of tools from the LSS toolbox that best contribute to the business needs in the company’s drive to deliver on its vision and ambition – in the same way that Toyota and Motorola developed and acquired skills and tools that were in line with their business needs and informed by their mindset.